An Economic Study of the Determinants of Egypt's Wheat Imports

S. Abd El-Aal Bkheet, Waleed; M. S. Makled, Salah; O. Abd E -Fatah, Mohamed

doi:10.21608/esm.2025.445037

An Economic Study of the Determinants of Egypt's Wheat Imports

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ graduate student -of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University

² Prof. Emeritus of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University

³ Prof. of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Ain Shams University.

10.21608/esm.2025.445037

Abstract

Wheat is considered one of the most strategic crops in Egyptian agriculture, cultivated across the majority of Egypt’s governorates. In 2023, approximately 3.167 million feddans were planted with wheat. It is primarily used in the production of bread, which serves as a staple food for the population regardless of their socioeconomic status, and it is the main source of energy for individuals. Wheat provides approximately 57% of the daily carbohydrate requirements and a significant portion of the protein needs for individuals.
The wheat gap in Egypt has emerged due to the inability of domestic production to meet the growing food consumption needs. The research problem lies in the fact that the self-sufficiency rate of wheat was about 46% in 2023, despite the increase in domestic production. This may be attributed to population growth and the inability of production growth to keep pace with the rising consumption of wheat and its flour. Consequently, Egypt has become one of the largest wheat-importing countries in the world, with imports reaching approximately 9.212 million tons in 2024.
The wheat import equation indicates a decline in import volumes by approximately 0.77% and 0.55% for every 1% increase in the import price per ton in $ and production quantity, respectively. This means that the most influential variables affecting wheat import volumes in a given year were the import price per ton in $ and the previous year’s production. These variables were statistically significant at the 0.05 level, and the overall model was statistically significant as well. Moreover, approximately 61% of the variation in wheat imports can be explained by changes in the studied independent variables.

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